racingmeridian.com

GRIDIRON..like many, I’m becoming increasingly serious in all matters NFL as we approach the Sept 10^th season opener. For most people I know the League is no longer about frivolity or leisure, it’s about betting, betting and betting. The sheer amount of money wagered on games, often by those blindly betting their favourite team, means opportunities abound if you want to approach the games like a shark. Many years back I had the opportunity to watch games with an active bookie, a man who put bread on his table and wine in his belly based on his ability to outsmart the average punter. It was a fascinating exercise - I would knock back a few beers as the afternoon floated by, then rush home and write down as much as I could remember of the “sharp” guy’s lessons. He taught me to look at the schedule the way a player would. The critical games are against your division with certain key rivalries garnering the bulk of the attention. An out of conference road game, for instance, for the Dallas Cowboys the week before they play the New York Giants is a typical letdown scenario. It’s a good way to start your analysis of the season, but only a start…THE BEST..the late, great Ralph Wiley consistently won on the NFL, churning profits year after year without exception. From him I learned the importance of flexibility and adaptive reasoning. When a trend become an accepted part of public consciousness, it usefulness ends. The key is to remain diligent, hard working and open minded. In certain instances, I’ve learned, it is okay, maybe desirable, to play the team going on the road before a critical division game.  You have to develop an understanding of a team that has a “chip” on its shoulder or a particular motivation which will enable them to play hard in difficult circumstances. The Minnesota Vikings and Houston Texans are two teams this year that are desperate to break through, the Vikings for the big prize, the Texans to simply obtain a playoff spot, and they may treat every game as a chance to make up for what they perceive as lack of recognition or lack of fairness…PONIES HELP..from thoroughbred handicapping I learned what, at this point, is my greatest strength against my fellow football enthusiasts; the critical need to understand the level of opposition a team has thrived against and the level at which they will encounter difficulties. Horse players are constantly ranking runners and, importantly, also constantly downgrading or upgrading a past performance. Analysis of yard gained vs. yards surrendered, points per yard, sacks, time of possession etc are some of the tools you can use to gain a fuller picture of the quality of a teams performance. Who they played against is critical and almost always overlooked by the casual bettor. Look if you know me, you know I cannot stand the Carolina Panthers. But last year, in the minutiae, was a tale of a solid defence and a potent ball controlling, clock killing offence. You bet to make money, leave your heart with your loved ones…RED ZONE SYSTEM..a consistent winning approach, for instance, is simply to bet a team that gained more yards than their opponent in a losing effort the previous week, against a team that won but gained less yardage than their opponents (eg Dallas loses 21-7 while out gaining Washington in total yards 400-300. Philadelphia wins over New York 24-14 while being outgained 350-275. The next week, Dallas would be the savvy play against the Eagles as the spread will incorporate the results while ignoring the underlying dimensions of the contests). Try it. Dave Tuley of the Racing Form brought the system to my attention and it is brilliant at catching a team that deserves respect facing a team likely being given more than it deserves…KEYS..the best approach is to wait until you find an opportunity that literally causes you to tingle. Some trend you have been watching, some aspect of a team’s game you’ve been observing, something that you are seeing that no on else has observed. Nothing, I mean nothing, beats the feeling of being right while so many around you were wrong. Yep, that’s me getting the Pittsburgh Steelers at 6-1 to win the Superbowl last January, two weeks into the playoffs! It’s going to be a great season with numerous opportunities to make a meaningful score. At the end of the day the successful will be the ones who marry intelligence, hard work and creativity with a flexible approach.