Wednesday, April 29th, 2009...1:02 pm
Derby Diagnosis; The Top Three and the Skinny on the Favourite
Cam Ward of the Carolina Hurricanes reminds me of the new U2 song “Magnificent”. Now, this morning a purported hockey expert advised me that Ward had nothing to do with the late second heroics in last nights game. He said this, like most “experts” who do a little bizness with me, while handing over cash. Ward stopped 12 shots in the third period, and his play was the reason the Canes were able to adopt such a confident, aggressive posture in the dwindling minutes…Mats Seldom called me around eleven last night. “OMG!” he cried, “they’re calling it the greatest playoff comeback ever!” I knew where this was going. “Mats, Mats you dumb sack of cabbage, you loathsome slug”, I explained, “this isn’t going to excuse you from playing any more hockey”. “Can’t they just give Carolina the Cup and let me go home”, he blubbered. I put the phone down and cracked open some suds. I could hear a high pitched scream emanating from the phone followed by anguished sobbing. “The Canucks” he wailed,” They just won’t leave me alone! What do they want?” I picked up the phone. “Mats, you vile, objectionable piece of soiled shoe leather, they want you to earn the money they’ve paid you.” I could hear the confused Swede banging his head off the floor, thud, thud ,thud. “Toronto never cared about that!!!” I hung up the phone and went to bed…longshot prospect Win Willy has been withdrawn from consideration for the Kentucky Derby. The son of Derby winner Monarchos figured to be rolling in the lane and was a viable prospect for the bottom of your tri’s and superfectas…I’ve followed Bob Baffert for over twenty years but I’ve never seen him as confident approaching a Derby as he is with PioneeroftheNile. He was quoted yesterday as stating, “It’s all down to racing luck now”, meaning his charge is primed for a peak effort and only the intervention of the bitch goddess of racing can derail this colt. Pioneer has a mind of his own and the worst case scenario would see him set off after the front runners, as was his wont in the Santa Anita Derby. The hope is a fast pace in the Derby will allow jockey Garret Gomez to curtail the colt’s early initiative and let him settle about mid pack. A dramatic move will likely commence about three furlongs from home…I have strong preferences for three runners, PioneeroftheNile, Dunkirk and Desert Party. Here are a couple of keys. Both Dunkirk and Desert Party are exiting runner up placings where their chances were compromised by speed biased surfaces. Both lost to fast foes who rode the bias. Both would be solid plays to reverse those results on a fair surface. My assertion is that Desert Party and Dunkirk derived solid, foundation building benefits from what were, essentially, perfect preps for May 2nd…Pioneer is unbeaten in four starts this year and his reputation is boosted by the inordinate subsequent success of those he vanquished. He is bred to handle the dirt and has been the picture of health while working in Kentucky this week. Bob Baffert has “blown” a Derby where he sent a runner, Point Given, without really battening down the hatches. Point Given had not moved forward after a facile win in the 2001 Santa Anita Derby and Baffert, eyes on a potential Triple Crown, opted to keep the runner fresh. He has chastised himself ever since, tortured after Point Given annexed the Preakness and Belmont following his fourth place finish at Churchill. He won’t make the same mistake again and on Saturday his runner will be the thin edge of a knife blade…ok, here’s what no one is writing about I Want Revenge and trainer Jeff Mullins. As MIA would say, Mullins has more records than the KGB, a repeat violator of every norm and standard in thoroughbred racing. He is viewed with suspicion by competitors and tacitly acknowledged as a cheater by handicappers. The crucial aspect of his chances on Saturday revolve around the administration of “magic” to his colt. The constant presence of media and the surveillance of competitors may compromise his ability to accomplish this task. Couple of things; for years one of the top trainers in America could not win a Breeders Cup race. Speculation centred on the inability of the trainer and his famous “vet” staff to spend quality time alone with their horses before these high profile events. Secondly, and this is the kicker, high profile trainers will watch each other like hawks before the Kentucky Derby. The coolest story ever told, as far as my feeble mind is concerned, concerns Bob Baffert telling another trainer he knew he was cheating. And inisting, as both trainers prepared runners for the Breeders Cup Classic, he was not going to get away with it. Baffert hired a private security team to watch his competitor and his stalls 24/7. Any abnormal activities, Baffert warned, and he would blow the whistle on the trainer. End result? The animal in question ran horribly while Baffert’s Silver Charm ran second…Rachel Alexandra will be an odds-on choice in Friday’s Kentucky Oaks. The filly has been impressive in her preparations at Churchill this week and is strictly the one to beat…Andre Berto will face Juan Urango on May 30th. The lauded prospect is going to benefit from some savvy matchmaking; he can pound Urango and recover some of the street cred he lost while narrowly defeating Luis Collazo a few weeks back…
Comments are closed.